What is wrong with my math??

[macmanmatty]

I have small farm to plant this year with tomato plants the area is about 200*75 (which according to my math 1/3 of acre or 15000 sq ft) I will be planting with all large tomatoes non cherry types 2 oz+. According to my math with a 3 x 3 spacing I can fit about 1600 tomato plants on this farm. Next according to what I read, what I see, and what I have seen for myself I can expect 10 lbs of good tomatoes per plant. This would give me 16000 lbs of tomatoes. Take this times my selling price of 2 dollars a pound for my heirlooms and I should be able make 32000 dollars. If I triple that to get the price for a whole acre and use 4800 tomato plants get 48000 pounds of tomatoes and make 96000 dollars. So according to my math when can I quit the day job?
But seriously, there must be something wrong with my math or numbers; or there would be a whole more people doing this? I don't get it? Is the problem finding a market? Or am I not really going to get 10 lbs of tomatoes per plant with a large scale operation? Am I trying to space plants to close to each other?

[dice]

3' between plants along the row is fine, but 3' to the next row
seems kind of close spacing. How are you going to fit between
rows to weed them, cut off diseased leaves, check for bug
damage, etc, and harvest when the plants get full-sized?

The other issue is market. Can the same market that can absorb
16000 lbs of tomatoes at $2/lb just as easily absorb 48000 lbs
of tomatoes without driving the price lower or leaving a chunk
of the production unsold? If you were wholesaling, sure, but
that might be harder to do selling direct to consumers. How
many consumers actually pass by your fruit stands, for example?

[matereater]

Also, what about overhead costs? Labor, fertilizers, insecticides, seeds, seedling containers, etc. That will eat into your bottom line bigtime.

[kygreg]

matereater mentioned labor; I have a day job and I grow a little over 100 tomato plants but not to sell, anyway it takes quote a bit of time to care for them; I stake and tie them up as they grow(there is probably a more time efficient way to do than I do) but still with with 4800 plants you are going to have to have a good game plan, a lot of time, and or a lot of help. Help usually translates to expense.

[GIZZARDFARM]

I had over 300 plants last year not to mention a large bean and okra patch and i was just about my limit without hiring a partner. This year im doing the same but with more okra and beans along with 2.5 acres of silver queen corn i may have to hire some part time help. i cant imagine keeping a fulltime job and thinking about 1600 plants, although i have young children who also need my time..i guess it could be done...Gizzard oh yeah "why arent more people doing this" my experience around here everyone likes to eat my maters but most dont know how to raise them, are unable to, or just too lazy. Its a whole lotta hard work that scares most folks...

[brokenbar]

I have 150 to 250 plants each year to supply my sun dried business and I have debated growing bigger based on demand but decided more expense, more help and more hassle.
I have all buried weep hose and rows that are simple to run the rototiller down between so I barely ever have any weeds and I do mulch with straw but when the plants are actively growing, just tying them up is a major deal and I have to do it just about every day. And when they all start coming ripe BIG bunch of work. Over-ripe is not a good thing and it is just wasting all your hard work when you lose tomatoes because you did not get them picked.
And believe me...if I did not have an established market, there is NO WAY I would grow this many plants. My first year I had 30 plants and gradually expanded. It is ALL ABOUT MARKETING...It does no good to have 1000 lbs of tomatoes if there is no buyer and you end up throwing them away. I think I would start small and allow the business and number of plants to grow exponentially based on sales and/or orders. IMHO...it is better to not have enough to fill orders than too many not sold.

[macmanmatty]

Thanks for the replies. It will be just me doing this with very little overhead no other labor other than me. Not on a full acre just 75' x 100' and about 900-1000 plants. There will be a fungicides and pesticides, but they only cost 10 cents per application per plant max and that is for a full grown plant as large as it will get for a small plant it would be much less. The ground already has 2 loads ( 80 cu yards) of fresh mushroom compost tilled into it. So I don't think I will be needing much fertilizers. My math has changed a little, I have decided to go with 5-7 feet between the rows so that I can get a mower or tiller through. Also all plants will be on a drip irrigation system Still sound doable?

[Wi-sunflower]

Maybe. That still sounds like a lot of plants for the space tho.

I forgot and am too lazy to look back in the thread to see if you are staking / tieing up the plants. If so, maybe you will be able to fit them in.

Your math in the first post may be right, but from doing market gardens for about 30 years now, I know that as you get bigger in size, you loose the total control you have when doing something small scale. My rule of thumb is for every time you double the size of the planting, you can only count on 1/2 again the amount of produce. Even less if you get beyond what you are able to do yourself as no one takes care of things for others like they do for themselves.

As far as profit goes, it's similar as there will be more work and hired labor, etc as you get bigger in size.

Yet another anomoly I've run into several times -- while you are growing something just as a trial or to see if you like it, but without and real "customers", you will have virtually no problems growing it. Yields will be fantastic. As soon as you build up a customer base that is looking for that product and maybe even depending on it, everything will go wrong. The weather will cr@p out on you, the bugs will be horrible, the seed will be discontinued. It goes on and on like that.

And yes I was killed when a particular variety of Bok Choy seed was discontinued. I could plant that 1 variety from early spring til fall and get fantastic crops for my Chinese restaurant customers. Since I can no longer get that variety, I haven't found a variety that grows worth a darn in my area. They all bolt and I'm lucky to get 20% of a crop spring or fall.

That's why I've been reluctant to go into a CSA type business. (CSA = community supported ag = subscription gardening) I'm always afraid that if I HAVE to produce a bag/box of produce for people that have already paid me for it, I won't have anything to put in the boxes. Or all they will get is the same 1 or 2 things every week.

Basically when figuring for yields / income from a garden, do your planing, but then figure just 1/2 of whatever yields you SHOULD get. That way if you have a good season, you have excess and will do well. But if you have a so-so to terrible season, you haven't over committed and disappoint customers.

Just my opinions, your milage may vary.

[hasshoes]

Don't forget too that a lot of those maters are going to be ripe at the same time. High heat will most likely create a few lulls in production with a lot of varieties. And most heirlooms only last a few days (tasting good/great anyways). . . and quite a few will split or become bruised if very much weight i.e. many other tomatoes are put on top of them. So a big challenge I think will be transporting and selling large amounts in a small period of time.

As others have pointed out as well. . . your production may very well be cut with more plants . . . with large plots disease can spread like wildfire!

[Colorado_west]

Are you staking/caging the tomtoes? If so that adds up. How about water costs? Drip systems costs? There is cost to digging up the ground. Tiller costs? Cultivation costs. Raise or buy your plants? Here to sell by pound you must have a licensed scale. Licenses to sell. Boxes ,buckets, sacks? Tables ,canopy and be there to sell? Sell every day or twice a week? Place to clean an sort the tomatoes? Here a question people ask if I spray my tomates. No I do not.

[tigahb8]

As far as amount of plants are you growing determinate
or indeterminate types? I plant my determinate @ 18"
centers with 5 ft centers on the rows. Indeterminates are
planted @ 30" centers with 6 ft between the rows (they
tend to get large here)

ButchT

[Worth1]

I will answer the original question.
Why aren't more people doing it?

IT IS ONE HELL OF A LOT OF WORK!!!!!!

Worth

This link may be more than you were looking for but just check the numbers; for example the projected difference in "selling" price based on "delivery" date (season).

http://attra.ncat.org/attra-pub/tomato.html#c3

Be conservative in you planning. There are some other sources of accurate data on profitability. Notice where the real risk are.

Not trying to rain on you but "farming" is and always has been risky. Good times and Bad times!

Good luck!

Steve