Jump the Gun

[Gardeneer]

Use your LFD wisely.
With that and today,s weather forecasing science one can minimize his/her risks considerably.
What is LFD ?
In a nurshell it is a date based on historical weather data.
Conventional LFD is a 90/10 probability. That is , there is 90% chance not to have a frost after that date. But inversely there remains a 10% chance that it mght happen.
There are also 80/20 , 95/5 LFDs. Take your pick ! Jump the gun or hold your horses.

Having said all that, I confess that I have jumped the gun few times. Hopefully I have learned my lesson well.

[AlittleSalt]

Gardeneer. There's a 10% chance that 90% of everything we read might or might not be half right...possibly.

[Nan_PA_6b]

Amen, Salt!

Nan

[Goodloe]

Originally Posted by AlittleSalt

Gardeneer. There's a 10% chance that 90% of everything we read might or might not be half right...possibly.

...or probably.

[Goodloe]

Every year, I tell myself to wait. Keep an eye on Mr. Rufus across the street, I say... somehow, he just knows when to plant outside. But, nooo.... /(

[Nan_PA_6b]

Originally Posted by Goodloe

Every year, I tell myself to wait. Keep an eye on Mr. Rufus across the street, I say... somehow, he just knows when to plant outside. But, nooo.... /(

Hmmm... could you perhaps convince this Mr. Rufus to join Tomatoville? He seems to have knowledge we need...

Nan

[Goodloe]

Originally Posted by Nan_PA_6b

Hmmm... could you perhaps convince this Mr. Rufus to join Tomatoville? He seems to have knowledge we need...

Nan

I'll run it by him, but I'm not even sure he owns a computer....

[SteveP]

Our LFD was today. It was 29f this morning and spitting snow along with strong wind. Tomorrow morning they are saying 28f. I still buy my plants locally and haven't bought any yet. Maybe later this week.

Salt, sorry to hear about your plants. I jumped the gun last year and my impatience only led to more work, which I try to avoid. So far this year I am just patiently waiting, but it's not happening nearly fast enough. I hope you have a great growing season.

[upcountrygirl]

Halleone, thanks for the idea of the bamboo stakes helping to hold down the jugs to help protect the plants. We had howling rain storms here yesterday. All my plants survived intact!

Now, from one extreme to the other. Let's hope I haven't jumped the gun. I've been watching the weather forecast for the last week. Every time I checked tonight's expected low temperature was lower. It's currently forecasted for 32 which means @ my house it will be about 30. Going to cover the plants and hope for the best.

[Gardeneer]

Originally Posted by AlittleSalt

Gardeneer. There's a 10% chance that 90% of everything we read might or might not be half right...possibly.

That is right.
It is playing with "Probability & Statistics " which , BTW is "scientific". The universe operates on Probability and Statistics.
BREAKING.at 4:30 am the temperture (according to my remote sensor near the garden) stands at 40F..It will keep going d9wn til 7 am.
Now 5his is when we are passed our LFD by 11 days. So I guess that 10% , 5% is ruling.

[halleone]

Originally Posted by upcountrygirl

Halleone, thanks for the idea of the bamboo stakes helping to hold down the jugs to help protect the plants. We had howling rain storms here yesterday. All my plants survived intact!

Now, from one extreme to the other. Let's hope I haven't jumped the gun. I've been watching the weather forecast for the last week. Every time I checked tonight's expected low temperature was lower. It's currently forecasted for 32 which means @ my house it will be about 30. Going to cover the plants and hope for the best.

Upcountrygirl, the winds are back again with a vengeance here, too. The cabbage family are still mostly protected by the jugs and seem happy enough. The tomatoes are safe in the Wallo's, but I doubt they like it very much. I had taken all my other seedling out to the garden shed and they sit in front of the window, but yesterday I noticed the Thai basil was looking sickly for no good reason, and also the decorative sweet potato vine. It's just too cold for them I guess, so I'll bring them back in the house today, and I hope they make it OK. Sure am looking forward to a little less wind and a little more sun!

[AlittleSalt]

Yes, those averages are taken from over 100 years of data. Just 5 years ago, we had a frost in May. Our last frost day LFD is averaged out to be March 15th or whatever - it does not mean anything.

For average people who do not garden - it really doesn't mean much. See, I just used that word "Average" where it kind of hurts and is even offensive. If you average 2 years on the same day - one being 100F and the other being 0F - mathematically the average is 50F...and it doesn't mean squat.

When you spend many years in a given place - you see that that averages are nothing more than numbers. You get a feel of what it is really like, and you learn from those years of experience. There are places where those averages mean something, but not for most of us.

This messed up weather year is about average.

[nbardo]

Average last frost means that if you put your plants out on that date, theres roughly a 50% chance your plants will be outside during a killing frost.

In my area average last frost is April 7. But i dont like those odds, so im waiting until this weekend when i can see the forecast all the way out past the 90% certainty mark.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[imp]

I watch the mesquite trees, usually if they are leafing out, the frosts are over with for that year.

[49tandc]

I transplanted twenty one tom seedlings on March 1st into dutch buckets. these are in a greenhouse with plastic over the top (open sides & ends). We had a few nights in the mid 30's but all plants came thru OK. I just pickled the first cherry tom yesterday. LOTS of little green ones and LOTS of flowers. Consider myself lucky.

49T&C