Don't have any neat and easy answers for you, other than to say if you think it is going to get close, best to go ahead and cover.
Be aware that although it usually doesn't happen, theoretically a frost can occur when it drops below 40 or high 30's.
I'd also point out / ask - what source are you using for that forecast? Weather Underground is the best and most reliable, at least here in Texas. The local weatherman, intellicast, etc. tend to be over-optimistic - frequently too optimistic for my personal comfort zone in those close call cases on cold spring nights.
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