Thread: Backcrossing
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Old May 6, 2015   #11
crmauch
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Location: Honey Brook, PA Zone 6b
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joseph View Post
For the worst case scenario, let's assume that one parent provides all of the desired genes, and the other parent doesn't provide any. So with two recessive genes and one dominant the odds of finding the phenotype you are looking for in the F2 are: 1/4 * 1/2 * 1/4 = 1 in 32... However half of plants that match the desired phenotype will only have one copy of the R gene, so the odds are 1:64 that an F2 plant will be homozygous for all the genes of interest. But because the assortment of the genes, and the selection of seeds is random, I figure that you'd need about 320 plants to feel really secure about winning the genetic lottery.
Would you not have to grow out subsequent generations to verify that the variety is homozyqous for the dominant R gene?

I would also refer you to Carol Deppe's book (unless someone knows an online version of her chart), where for a given odd she gives how many plants to plant out for a 95% certainty and a 99% certainty of getting what you're looking for.
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