TS Florence - SE Coast take care
 

Tropical Storm Florence seems to be roaring toward the Carolinas, but almost anywhere from FL through the midAtlantic is at risk. :shock: If you are also in this zone, keep an eye on the advisories, and be safe!

[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents[/url]. (Models of the predicted track are quite wide and variable at this point)

There is a pretty good train of tropical disturbances coming along behind this storm, so it looks like the storm season is heating up! :?:

I've been keeping an eye on this one too. Even if it doesn't make landfall it is bound to affect coastal areas. I know they often make a curve away from land as they approach it but then travel up the coast. Either way, storm is coming.
It's been such a quiet season for Atlantic hurricanes compared to last year. But we're now into the seasonal peak time, so there are bound to be a few.

At the moment, there is a high developing over New England that appears to be in position to interfere with a northern swing, but unfortunately that isn't quite in the right place to redirect Flo out to sea. Its position is part of the difficulty in predicting better a track this far out.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c22f5Jca5ok[/url]

It definitely looks like a broadside to the Carolinas. I don't know all the models but the ukmet global modelling system has a tendency to be the most solid... and it sure looks like a direct landfall.



We had some experience here with blocking lows or highs, they can get you stuck in a weather pattern that just won't go away... It could even be worse if the storm does hook northward trying to push up the coast with that big high slowing it down. Slow moving hurricanes can dump the motherload of rain. At least with a broadside landfall Florence will quickly lose steam over land. I'm sure that's small consolation to those in the area though! :shock:
Time to batten your hatches for Wednesday...

Update this morning has landfall at Category 3. :no: But it is pushed back to Friday. A lot can change in five days but the coast is certainly going to be hit hard. Take care, Carolina coastal gardeners! :o

Hope all in the path of these storms come through safely and with out losing homes and all. Looks to be a slow one, too, which means lots of water being dumped.

One million told to evacuate. Be safe folks!

They are reversing traffic flow on several bridges, allowing many more folks to evacuate more quickly.
We have lived through a cat 5(Andrew) as a direct hit, it was 90% devastation. I am feeling empathy with those of us that are going through these preparations now.
It may be solace a bit that its supposed to weaken to a cat 3 when it makes landfall. Still a very serious threat.

This is a very scary storm. States of emergency declared in South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, with mandatory evacuations of residents near the coast, and the general directive "get to higher ground".:o
Thinking of our friends seaeagle, BigVanVader, TomNJ (I'm just glad of all those beautiful mountain photos Tom! and thinking you at least won't be evacuated for flood risks), even PureHarvest in Maryland could be affected, and other T'villains. Hoping your homes are all battened and yourselves are getting to a safe place now if you aren't already at lower flood risk.



However did we ever survive without weather forecasting. :shock: It is so awesome to have days to prep and/or get out of the way of these terrible storms. I just can't imagine the old days, when a monster like Florence could sneak right up on you. :panic::?: Here's hoping there will be no loss of life because everyone was warned and knew what to do and where to go to safety.

Although the majority of the models have a southeastern North Carolina landfall, the European models which have been very reliable in the past are pointing to a South Carolina landfall.


[url]https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091100_ECENS_0-120h_large.png[/url]


I am 100 miles north of Virginia Beach on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Yesterday we were in the cone of uncertainty and today we are out of it. Today looks better than yesterday for our area.


Hopefully Isabelle was our once in a lifetime disaster. We did not have power for 2 weeks and lots were out longer.

[QUOTE=bower;714389]This is a very scary storm. States of emergency declared in South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, with mandatory evacuations of residents near the coast, and the general directive "get to higher ground".:o
Thinking of our friends seaeagle, BigVanVader, TomNJ (I'm just glad of all those beautiful mountain photos Tom! and thinking you at least won't be evacuated for flood risks), even PureHarvest in Maryland could be affected, and other T'villains. Hoping your homes are all battened and yourselves are getting to a safe place now if you aren't already at lower flood risk.



However did we ever survive without weather forecasting. :shock: It is so awesome to have days to prep and/or get out of the way of these terrible storms. I just can't imagine the old days, when a monster like Florence could sneak right up on you. :panic::?: Here's hoping there will be no loss of life because everyone was warned and knew what to do and where to go to safety.[/QUOTE]

How did we ever survive without weather forecasting you ask?

Coming from a farming back ground here's what it meant.

Red sky in the morning,sailors take warning,red sky at night,sailor's delight.

Prevailing winds and storms where I'm from are west to East,but when they changed from East to West that meant trouble.

We'd get in the car and drive up to the Albany Airport and sit in the car and watch all the military planes,being flown in from mainly Florida. Actually whereever there was an Air Force base.

Yes,we had bad storms where I am in upstate NY,but not hurricanes as I remember,and what it meant was that neighbors flocked to our farm and helped pick peaches and pears and apples,etc.

Carolyn

Fingers crossed, seaeagle. I'm sure you'll get some drenching when Florence curves north, but I sure hope you are spared any landfall impacts.


It looks like that blocking system is expected to push hard over land, keeping the track from curving northward for awhile.



Meanwhile the basin is filling up with storms and areas of interest, set to take potshots at land in all directions. Helene is tracking towards UK. Isaac the Caribbean and Florida. 95L taking aim at Texas.

[QUOTE=carolyn137;714412]How did we ever survive without weather forecasting you ask?

Coming from a farming back ground here's what it meant.

Red sky in the morning,sailors take warning,red sky at night,sailor's delight.

Prevailing winds and storms where I'm from are west to East,but when they changed from East to West that meant trouble.

We'd get in the car and drive up to the Albany Airport and sit in the car and watch all the military planes,being flown in from mainly Florida. Actually whereever there was an Air Force base.

Yes,we had bad storms where I am in upstate NY,but not hurricanes as I remember,and what it meant was that neighbors flocked to our farm and helped pick peaches and pears and apples,etc.

Carolyn[/QUOTE]
:) Yes of course, fishers and farmers always had an eye on the weather, and predictions from the auguries were a valuable knowledge essential to survive. Get the harvest in!! You bet. :yes:
When hurricane Igor struck here, the trees and bushes were loaded with fruit. After Igor passed, there was not a dogberry or a partridgeberry to be found. :no: We also were having a good year for edible mushrooms, which a friend and I were picking for restaurant client as well as ourselves. Before Igor = lots. After Igor = no new ones for the rest of that season. The damage to the trees I guess was enough to shut it down.



It is pretty awesome though to have satellite images of weather coming at you. Maps of sea surface temperature. Radar image of precipitation on its way. And a load of things I don't fully understand like wind sheer, air from the Sahara, etc etc. I find it all pretty fascinating, and slowly learning a bit more as time goes by...

Thank you PhilaGardener- it looks like Spartanburg will see the southern part of the storm, which is usually the weakest- but as some folks say, the European models push the landfall further south. Just got 41 solar panels put up on my roof this week- I hope they survive the potential winds! Prayers for those on the coasts- after growing up near Galveston, Texas- like Marsha, we have lost houses to these beasts from the East (Carla was the worst). Thanks all!